The provincial government and teachers' unions all have something to lose if they do not act with caution during negotiations.
November 19, 2019
Ontario Education Minister Stephen Lecce asked teachers' unions to accept the appointment of a mediator to help come out from the current deadlock around contract negotiations.
"I think it is the right approach considering it was successful in the recent negotiations with the Canadian Union of Public Employees, which resulted in ensuring students stay in a positive and safe learning environment," declared the minister in a press release on Monday.
Several unions are open to working with a mediator, though they can still choose to strike in case negotiations stall. The union representing French-language teachers in Ontario, AEFO, is the only one that still has not held a strike vote until now, but even they are starting to lose patience.
Is the Ford government at a political dead end?
Granted, the Ford government is not polling greatly at the moment, especially with teachers' unions. "It has always been a difficult relationship between teachers' unions and the government, no matter which government," says Geneviève Tellier, professor at the School of Political Studies of the University of Ottawa.
People are also usually more inclined to feel sympathetic towards teachers' unions, especially parents who "see the services provided to their children decrease, which also plays in favor of teachers." A strike could have real political consequences for the Ford government, Tellier says: "For sure, if there was a strike today, most people would not be happy with it."
"Then again," she continues, "it might show that Ford [...] really wants to come back to a balanced budget and not move away from this plan, which might actually please some voters." Besides, the next provincial elections being two years away, the government would still have time to restore its image.
But Louis Durand, a professor in industrial relations at Laurentian University, is not so sure about that considering "the provincial conservative base really does seem to have diminished since the last elections." And that's something the government is aware of: "For the past six months, [the government] seems to be preoccupied with its polling and is ready to make concessions on its political agenda to improve it."
What plays in Ford's favor
Durand notes that in spite of the sympathy teachers' unions draw, "if the unions do go for a general and unlimited strike without warning parents, it could tip the scale in favor of the government."
"The way in which the unions will utilize their pressure tactics will be very important. [...] And as for the government, if its approach to education is too unyielding, issues will keep popping up over the next two years." Therefore, both parties need to act wisely.
The provincial government could also adopt a special law forcing teachers to go back to work, as former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne had done in 2015. "Ford could go up to that point, but I think he is aware that the political price to pay for this can be quite high," says Durand.
It is to be reminded that no one wants a strike, says Tellier, "but negotiations are going nowhere right now: external help is needed, hence the call for a mediator."
In the end, Tellier thinks Ford's credibility is what will weigh the most in these negotiations, and whether or not unions will believe that the government earnestly wants to change its way of dealing with things compared to last year.
This story appeared in French on CBC/Radio-Canada.